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The history of early modern Europe is one of frequent revolt as states and societies transitioned from medieval feudal structures. Though similarities in causes of revolts, such as state building and religious conflicts, may reveal commonalities in the narratives, is it possible to explain the timing of these events from general mechanisms? Previous work has shown the potential for population, prices (Goldstone 1991), taxation, and warfare (Kiser and Linton 2002) to increase the probability of revolts. This paper tests a general model across all instances of revolt in France and England for the sixteenth through eighteenth centuries. Results indicate that this parsimonious model is able to show increased likelihood of revolts, with France more reactive to these pressures than England. The model specifically predicts the crisis of the mid 17 th century well for both cases, but fails to foresee the French Revolution of 1789.
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