This article is aimed at contributing to the development of parsimonious explanations as to what makes a society more or less vulnerable to ethnic-religious conflicts, that is, conflicts in which the dividing lines are largely determined by ethnic or religious group membership. In particular, the goals are, first, to conceptualize the relationship between investment in inclusive relationships, inter-group trust, and social-political discourse without assuming the salience of ethnic-religious group membership prior to social disintegration itself, and, second, to examine the nature of institutions and public policies that would bolster society's resilience to social disintegration, especially during periods of economic and political transition.

The article examines social disintegration by employing a model of interpersonal trust whereby beliefs about ethnic-religious others shift through cascade processes. The unit of analysis is individuals rather than groups, and the focus is on the period before society is clearly divided along ethnic lines and ethnic groups more or less act in unison. Accordingly, societies can disintegrate along mutually exclusive and antagonistic categories, even though cross-group cooperation and trusting behavior are widespread among ordinary people of different ethnic-religious backgrounds.

Social discourse operates as a signaling mechanism regarding the intentions of ethnic-religious others. Hence, the upsurge of an antagonistic discourse has a devastating impact on inter-group relations, the foremost victims being those who had invested in these relations and thus have a vested interest in interethnic peace.